Argentina’s November inflation data reflect a familiar tension between rising food prices and the effects of an aggressive austerity program, according to a recent Reuters survey of experts.
While higher beef prices likely pushed monthly inflation slightly higher, the annual rate is expected to drop to its lowest level in seven years — another milestone in the country’s efforts to rein in consumer prices.
Analysts surveyed between Dec. 3 and 9 forecast a 2.4% rise in the consumer price index for November, compared with 2.3% in October.
The national statistics agency, INDEC, will release the official figures on Thursday.
The consensus suggests that, despite pockets of volatility, Argentina’s monthly inflation trend continues to gradually moderate following a prolonged period of instability.
Beef prices remain a key driver of monthly pressure
The key driver of November’s small acceleration was increased beef prices, which economists believe have been rising since October.
Analysts at C&T Asesores Económicos reported that these rises accelerated in November, underlining the significance of beef in determining consumer inflation.
Despite a slight decrease in consumption in recent years, beef remains a major part of Argentine culture and eating habits.
Meat dishes, such as “bife” steaks, “milanesa” schnitzels, and the ever-popular “asado,” continue to be family and restaurant favourites.
Because of this deeply ingrained purchasing habit, variations in beef prices can have a significant impact on overall inflation, especially when price rises occur across various cuts and product categories.
C&T stated that the overall CPI increase would have been more pronounced if not for special online discounts on a variety of consumer products in November.
These short price cuts helped to counteract some of the inflationary pressure from food costs, indicating the ongoing impact of retail promotions in reducing monthly inflation trends.
Annual inflation expected to mark 19th consecutive decline
Argentina’s broader inflationary path seems to be gradually improving, even with the small monthly increase.
The poll showed that annual inflation was seen to have eased to 30.9% in November from 31.3% in October.
If confirmed, this would be the 19th monthly slip in a row from a record high of 289.4 per cent seen in April 2024.
The annual rate would also be the lowest since June 2018, when inflation was at 29.5%.
Analysts attribute this advancement to the government maintaining a tight fiscal course, which has now characterised President Javier Milei’s economic program.
Milei has tried to push through an austerity drive to stabilise prices and bring the budget back in line since he took office, but has faced political turbulence and market volatility in the process.
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