The fight over the next chair of the Federal Reserve has drifted out of the financial pages and into everyday conversation. And in recent days, one man’s name keeps surfacing. Kevin Hassett.
Kevin used to be a background character in US politics, and now he is being discussed as the person who could control the global monetary policy for the next decade.
People sense something bigger is going on. The world is trying to figure out what happens when monetary power and political ambition move closer together than they have in modern US history.
And whether the new Fed chair will be positive for the economy, crypto, and the current US President.
A new chair with a very different map of the world
Hassett is not really a mystery to markets. He has claimed that he would cut rates today. Trump has praised him in public, hinting he is the “one” in the running to replace Jerome Powell.
Recent reports suggest that he is the leading candidate according to White House insiders. Prediction markets put his nomination probability above 70% at this point.
But it’s the bond market that reacted before any announcement. Yields on the ten year rose roughly ten basis points after his name surfaced as front frontrunner, according to Bloomberg reporting.
That is not a coincidence. Investors are not scared of Hassett’s credentials. They are reacting to the idea that the Fed may soon look less like an independent institution and more like an economic arm of the White House.
Powell built his reputation around slow and predictable moves. His bias has been cautious. But Hassett has made the opposite case. He sees weaker data and wants faster cuts.
His critics worry he would arrive at the Fed with a mandate not from the economy but from the president.
That sense of mission shifts how investors think about risk. The Fed has always been political, but it has never been this noisy about it.
What happens when the bond market stops believing in the referee
Most global investors do not follow speeches or personalities. They watch yields instead.
The recent rise in the term premium is the message from the market. Traders are asking whether Hassett would be able to persuade the rest of the committee.
That question does not appear when the market trusts the chair’s independence.
The new pricing indicates a deeper concern. If the White House pushes harder on the Fed and the central bank bends, long-term borrowing becomes more expensive.
Cuts at the front may not pull the whole curve down in the way the president wants.
This is the first real mock test for US monetary credibility since the stagflation era.
The bond market is not pricing a crisis; rather, it is pricing noise and political pressure. And that is enough to affect global portfolios.
Long-duration investors need confidence that the Fed chair is reacting to data rather than to a tweet. When that confidence dips even slightly, money becomes more expensive for mortgages, companies, and the federal government.
Trump wants cheaper borrowing. Ironically, the path to cheaper borrowing runs through a credible Fed. The path he is choosing pushes in the opposite direction.
The crypto twist no one saw coming
A different group is watching the Fed race for a different reason, and that is crypto holders.
Hassett is a member of the Asset Management Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council of Coinbase and holds over one million dollars in company stock, according to reports.
That alone makes him the most crypto-entangled Fed chair candidate in history.
Supporters see this as a positive sign. A chair who understands digital assets could encourage banks to expand services and bring stablecoins deeper into the financial system.
Critics see a conflict of interest. The same institution that oversees bank supervision would be led by a man with direct ties to an industry seeking access to those banks.
Crypto traders are not worried about the governance debate. They see the bigger picture. Hassett’s arrival would likely trigger faster rate cuts in 2026. Liquidity fuels speculation.
The last cycle proved this again. Crypto usually runs ahead of rate expectations. A dovish chair with a friendly view of digital assets is the closest thing crypto markets have seen to a political tailwind.
Yet the long term risk is hidden under the surface. If the Fed becomes associated with one asset class or one industry, it becomes a target during the next political shift. A boom would be followed by a sharper backlash.
The global consequences hidden behind the headlines
The rest of the world is watching for a different reason. The US dollar’s strength has always rested on two foundations. The size of the economy and the predictability of its institutions.
The first is not changing. The second might.
A Fed that looks more political changes how global investors treat US debt. They do not abandon it.
They demand compensation for uncertainty. This is already visible in the small but noticeable rise in long term yields. These moves often start small. They grow over the years.
If Hassett gets the job, he will not be able to unilaterally slash rates. The Federal Open Market Committee still votes. But the tone at the top shapes the conversation.
The market will front-run whichever tone it believes. Powell’s voice kept expectations anchored even when the data pushed in different directions.
Hassett’s voice would push expectations toward faster easing even if the committee hesitated. Markets trade stories as much as numbers. The story is shifting.
Why it’s worth paying attention to this moment
The debate over the next Federal Reserve chair is not about personality. It is about the direction of global money.
The bond market has given an early signal. Crypto traders have drawn their own conclusions. The White House has made clear it wants a chair who shares its policy preferences. What makes this moment so important is that all these forces are moving at once.
A more political Fed means easier money in the short term and harder choices in the long run. It means a stronger push for asset markets today and a higher cost of stability tomorrow. People sense the stakes even if they cannot describe them.
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