Walmart stock (NASDAQ: WMT) surged to an all-time high of $117.48 on Monday, capping a remarkable run that reflects both mechanical index-related buying and growing investor conviction in the retailer’s transformation.
The stock gained roughly 3.6% in premarket trading and closed near session highs, extending its 2025 rally to nearly 26% and pushing the company’s market value toward $940 billion.
The jump was driven by a combination of short-term technical factors and longer-term strategic momentum that positions Walmart as a rare defensive retailer with genuine growth optionality.
Walmart stock: Mechanical buying from Nasdaq inclusion lifts shares
The most immediate catalyst came on Friday, when Nasdaq announced that Walmart would join the prestigious Nasdaq-100 Index effective January 20, 2026.
Walmart stock replaced AstraZeneca across multiple related indices.
This inclusion is expected to trigger automatic buying from passive index funds and exchange-traded funds that track the benchmark, a process known as “index inclusion flow” that can move major stocks several percentage points in the days before the effective date.
Analysts estimate the move could bring up to $19 billion in new passive inflows once the inclusion takes effect, providing meaningful near-term tailwinds for the stock.
This type of buying is mechanical rather than discretionary: fund managers holding Nasdaq-100 tracker products have no choice but to purchase Walmart shares once the changes become active.
Google’s AI shopping partnership signals retail evolution
Equally important was news over the weekend that Walmart is partnering with Google to integrate its products directly into Google’s Gemini AI chatbot, allowing customers to discover and purchase items without leaving the platform.
The announcement, made at Google and Walmart’s leadership presentation on Sunday, underscores a broader shift in how consumers shop: increasingly through AI conversations rather than traditional search or direct website visits.
Incoming CEO John Furner declared that Walmart is “driving” the shift to what he calls “agentic commerce,” where artificial intelligence acts as a shopping agent on the consumer’s behalf.
This partnership follows similar agreements Walmart struck with OpenAI’s ChatGPT in October and builds on the retailer’s earlier announcements of AI integration across its operations.
Advertising boom and strong fundamentals underpin rally
Behind these headlines sits a more fundamental story: Walmart’s advertising business is growing at a pace that challenges traditional media companies.
In the third quarter, Walmart’s global advertising revenues surged 53% year-over-year, with its flagship Walmart Connect platform growing 33% domestically.
The Vizio television acquisition is now beginning to pay dividends by allowing Walmart to link shopping behavior directly to connected TV inventory in what executives call a “closed-loop” advertising system.
Critically, these high-margin ad sales (gross margins exceeding 70%) are helping offset rising wage and fulfillment costs, allowing operating income to expand even as Walmart invests heavily in automation and drone delivery infrastructure.
In November, management raised full-year earnings guidance for the second consecutive quarter, signaling confidence in execution.
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